One of my investing idols, Howard Marks, regularly mentions something he learned as a college freshman back in 1963: you can’t judge the quality of a decision by its outcome. This seems very counterintuitive at first glance. But in the world of investing especially, it is spot on.
As humans, when facing something new, we tend to compare against things we are familiar with to draw parallels and establish expectations. The COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. Unfortunately, there are few historical precedents for this kind of event or its impact on the modern economy.