TED Talks

One of my investing idols, Howard Marks, regularly mentions something he learned as a college freshman back in 1963: you can’t judge the quality of a decision by its outcome. This seems very counterintuitive at first glance. But in the world of investing especially, it is spot on.

As humans, when facing something new, we tend to compare against things we are familiar with to draw parallels and establish expectations. The COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. Unfortunately, there are few historical precedents for this kind of event or its impact on the modern economy.

Last Friday, the United State Congress passed the largest financial rescue bill in the country’s history and the president signed it into law. The total package, known as the Coronovirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, is valued at over $2 trillion which amounts to about 10% of the entire economy. The scope of this fiscal deal is immense.

The dual battle against the covid-19 virus and resulting financial turmoil continues. As it happens, in my annual State of the Markets presentation this year, I spent some time discussing economic history. This is a subject I’ve been increasingly reading about over the last 18 months.

It has been an extraordinary month as the reality of the spreading coronavirus and its economic consequences sets in. Unfortunately, the playbook for managing a pandemic of this nature will most certainly result in a hit to the economy. This crisis will pass, but the consensus among experts is it will likely take months.